Winning under the new Lotto format - Some Chance

Lotto?  It's a Numbers Game

More ways to win, they said.

Bigger prizes, they said.

And, of course, the National Lottery were not wrong in their claims about the changes that would result from the new 47-ball format that came into play last September.

But what they didn't inform the public was that other subtle changes, such as the withdrawal of a prize for 3 numbers in the Lotto Plus 2 game, meant the picture isn't as rosy as the National Lottery would suggest when the odds of winning prizes in all three Lotto games (Lotto and 2 Lotto Plus games) are calculated.

And 90 per cent of those who play, choose the Plus option.

Here's a piece from a few months back that examines the figures.

Detailed tables on average payouts and the number of winners between the old and new formats of Lotto are displayed.

(Many thanks to Karrie Kehoe of The Times for assistance with the data)

Winning the New Lotto - Some Chance....

The number of players winning any type of prize in the twice-weekly Lotto and Lotto Plus draws has fallen sharply since a new game format was introduced six months ago.

Despite a major rise in the cost of playing since September, the average prize fund for each game night has only increased by 3.6 per cent.

These are the main findings of an analysis by The Times of all 117 draw results since the start of 2015 to February 13 of this year.

It reveals that an average of only 66,700 players win some type of prize on each draw night under the new format, compared with more than 93,000 under the older version.

It also shows that under the new 47-ball format the average total payout for all winning combinations in the three draws on any given night is €1.39 million, compared with more than €1.34 million in the older game format — an increase of just €48,000.

On September 5, in the first major change to the game structure since 2006, the cost of playing Lotto rose by 25 per cent for customers who choose the “Plus” option. The minimum play went from €4 to €5. According to the National Lottery, 90 per cent of customers choose the “Plus” option. The price increase was 33 per cent for those who just played the main Lotto game.

Michael Cronin, head of the Department of Statistics at University College Cork, said the figures would suggest there had been a 9 per cent reduction in the number of lines played in the main Lotto game since the new format was introduced.

As well as raising the price, the National Lottery added two numbers to the existing 45-number format in September, significantly reducing a player’s chance of winning each type of match prize.

Extra winning combinations were added to the main Lotto draw as well as a €300 raffle prize for Lotto Plus players. This enabled the National Lottery to promise that the changes offered more ways to win and bigger jackpots.

However, the company did not publicise the fact that it withdrew the Match 3 prize in the Lotto Plus 2 game, which was won by an average of more than 26,000 players in each draw.

Dr Cronin said the odds of winning any prize in the new format had increased to 1 in 17.4 from 1 in 14.3 in the 45-ball game.

“While the odds of winning any prize on the main Lotto have increased, the change in mean prize is marginal,” he said. “That is more than offset by the increase in the price to play.”

In other words, while people with winning combinations are receiving slightly larger prizes on average, there are far fewer of them than before and everyone is paying more to play.

Since the new format was introduced there have been five winners of the big jackpot, paying out a total of €33.3 million. The biggest single jackpot of almost €13.8 million was won by a family in Co Mayo.

The National Lottery is now owned by Premier Lotteries Ireland Ltd, a consortium involving An Post and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which controls Camelot, the UK lottery group. Premier Lotteries Ireland took over the running of the lottery in 2014 with a 20-year licence.

A spokeswoman for Premier Lotteries Ireland said “Bigger Better Lotto” was introduced to create more winners and bigger jackpots as part of the company’s longterm growth strategy for the National Lottery.

She maintained that the odds on winning any prize for the core Lotto game had reduced from 1 in 42 to 1 in 28.7 under the new format.

Premier Lotteries Ireland said its own analysis of the results of 43 draws before and after the change indicated overall prize funds had increased by 10.3 per cent. It also insisted the overall number of winners across all games had risen.

However, the company declined to reveal any details of whether there had been an increase or decrease in the number of Lotto players since last year’s price rise. Similarly it did not provide any requested information on sales performance since the change to the new 47-ball format.

The spokeswoman said annual results for 2015 would be issued “in due course”, adding: “The new game and increased jackpot rollovers have generated huge player interest with the highest weekly sales recorded since 2010.”