Monday, October 27, 2014

Tourism 2013 - A Gathering of Statistics

Tourism in Ireland 2013 - A Gathering of Statistics

It might not have been a record year for overseas tourists but the industry recorded a major rebound with the number of foreign visitors up 6.4% to almost 6.7 million.

The Gathering initiative was widely deemed a major success with over 5,000 special events credited with attracting an extra 270,000 visitors from abroad and generating €170m in additional revenue.

But tourism in Ireland is not evenly distributed and tourism interests in some parts of the country are annoyed that regions are not equally promoted - a concern that has grown this year through the large-scale publicity surrounding the launch of the Wild Atlantic Way tourist route.

This blog seeks to provide some insight to the performance of Ireland's tourism industry by the 26 counties individually and to identify any trends at that level.

First of all, the general picture for where foreign tourists holidays in Ireland last year confirms that a few counties dominate all the others in terms of visitor numbers.



The map above shows that Dublin, not surprisingly as the country's capital and main gateway, is the main tourist destination by some distance attracting almost 4 million overseas visitors in 2013. The other main popular tourist area is the western seaboard between Galway and Cork, while the Midlands region has relatively small numbers of visitors from abroad - just 22,000 in the case of Longford.
(It should be noted that the figures allow for the fact that foreign tourists visit more than one county.)

When looked at in a slightly different fashion - as the percentage of all foreign tourists to Ireland which each county attracts - the regional imbalance is again quite stark.

More than half of all counties are visited by less than 3% of all overseas visitors which are all located either in the Midlands or north-east. In contrast, Dublin is visited by 60% of all foreign tourists.

Cork, Galway and Kerry are the only other counties to achieve visitor levels above 10% of all tourists. Clare and Limerick are the only remaining ones to have visitor levels more than 5%.




However, while the above graphs and tables confirms the existence of a two-tier tourism market in Ireland with Dublin and coastal counties between Galway and Cork being popular destinations and everywhere else largely off the main tourist drag, the results for 2014 are more rosy for the latter group than might first appear.

 The next graph shows the change in overseas visitor numbers for all 26 counties last year compared to figures for 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly and contrary to expectation, it is the regions without a strong traditional tourism base that recorded the biggest growth in foreign tourist numbers in 2013.



More than half of all counties recorded a growth in overseas visitor numbers with Laois, Cavan, Leitrim and Monaghan having the highest increases.

While to some extent small increases/decreases will result in large percentage changes in counties with low overall visitor numbers,  there is still a sense that the uniform nature of the increase in such regions last year suggests some type of pattern.

One likely explanation is the impact of The Gathering which aimed to entice people with family connections to Ireland back to their original homeplace  of their relatives/ancestors.

The initiative is widely acknowledged as being a major success, not solely in terms of attracting extra visitors but also imbuing towns and villages with a new sense of community in many cases.

Foreign tourist numbers were static in four counties - Cork, Meath, Waterford and Wexford,

The figures for Cork are somewhat disappointing as it would be expected that the country's second favourite tourist destination would share some of the overall growth. However, the unchanged figures might indicate the impact of cutbacks on the number of routes directly serving Cork Airport.

Despite overall growth in tourism in 2013, six counties actually recorded less visitors than in 2012 with Roscommon, Offaly and Mayo seeing a particularly sharp decrease.

Is it possible that all those "boil water" notices in Roscommon are impacting negatively on the county's tourism sector?

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Rental Property Market



Rental Properties - A Market Out of Control?


A new report by the Residential Property Tenancies Board to mark the organisation's 10th anniversary examines if rent controls, which are used in many EU states, would have a benefit effect on the Irish market.

The main conclusion is they wouldn't.

But the report also provides some interesting statistics.

* Only 17% of tenants are happy renting.

* 65% of landlords own just one property

* 29% of landlords want to sell their property as soon as they can

* 68% of tenants are renting because of their inability to buy a house

Despite slight decreases in 2011 and 2012, the number of inspections on dwellings in the private rented sector per year has been increasing since 2005.

The total number of inspections in 2013 was 21,223 which is 211 per cent higher than the 6,815
carried out in 2005.

The map below shows the percentage of inspections in each local authority area which failed to meet regulatory standards.



The results highlight major differences in /non-compliance levels between various local authorities ranging from 0% in Donegal, Limerick and Waterford to 100% in Louth.

Such findings might suggest there is a need for greater standardisation in the inspection of rental properties around the country.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

MyHome.ie My Goodness

Ross O’Carroll Kelly warned it would be a problem and so it has come to pass.

Myhome.ie has blamed the confusion over postcodes for Terenure for a series of embarrassing errors in its recent analysis of house prices in 2014.
Everybody who works with figures or statistics is prone to error. But the knowledge of that universal truth is why all statistical exercises should be checked and re-checked. Indeed it's desirable that as many sets of eyeballs as possible should verify the data. (The same truth applies to journalism which is why the erosion of the role of sub-editors is so worrying)
Anyway, it was surprising to recently identify serious errors in a report on the property market published by MyHome.ie. The cynic in me ensured my first instinct was to think here is another estate agency talking up the property market but we'll have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
As I was clarifying the matter with MyHome.ie in September, they revealed that they had just asked The Irish Times (which ironically owns the MyHome.ie website) to print a clarification in the newspaper's property section where they admitted they had got their figures wrong about the volume of sales in the Terenure area.
It appears the same issue led to the mistake outlined below.
But Dublin's most famous fictional Southsider warned long ago that the reclassification of Terenure from the postal district of Dublin 6 to the Dublin 6W would cause problems. MyHome.ie admitted that properties in Dublin 6W were double counted in their half-year analysis of 2014 figures from the Residential Property Price Register.
According to the press release issued by MyHome.ie on September 10, it shows figures for all half-year sales (January-June) in Co Dublin between 2010 and 2014.
The interesting figures are the final row marked "Total" which, for example,claims 5,240 properties were sold in the capital in the first six months of this year.
Similarly, MyHome.ie provides figures on the value of those sales.
Again, the final row contains figures for the value of Dublin residential property market sales for Q1-Q2 of each year with sales of €1.83bn in the first half of 2014.
However, a relatively simple analysis of the Residential Property Price Register for the first six months of each year reveals quite a different set of figures and shows that MyHome.ie have overestimated the growth in the Dublin property market by a sizeable amount.

The differences are highlighted in the table below and they reveal that MyHome.ie's figures exaggerated the true number of sales in Dublin by 200-300 in most years and their related value by more than €100m in a majority of years.

As you can see, the cumulative errors overestimated sales in Dublin over a five-year period by almost 1,200 properties and their value by almost €577m
A very helpful PR person on behalf of MyHome.ie explained the miscalculated figures were due to a "data retrieval error."
Which has all left me wondering whether it would be better to live in a phantom property than a ghost estate!