Winning under the new Lotto format - Some Chance

Lotto?  It's a Numbers Game

More ways to win, they said.

Bigger prizes, they said.

And, of course, the National Lottery were not wrong in their claims about the changes that would result from the new 47-ball format that came into play last September.

But what they didn't inform the public was that other subtle changes, such as the withdrawal of a prize for 3 numbers in the Lotto Plus 2 game, meant the picture isn't as rosy as the National Lottery would suggest when the odds of winning prizes in all three Lotto games (Lotto and 2 Lotto Plus games) are calculated.

And 90 per cent of those who play, choose the Plus option.

Here's a piece from a few months back that examines the figures.

Detailed tables on average payouts and the number of winners between the old and new formats of Lotto are displayed.

(Many thanks to Karrie Kehoe of The Times for assistance with the data)

Winning the New Lotto - Some Chance....

The number of players winning any type of prize in the twice-weekly Lotto and Lotto Plus draws has fallen sharply since a new game format was introduced six months ago.

Despite a major rise in the cost of playing since September, the average prize fund for each game night has only increased by 3.6 per cent.

These are the main findings of an analysis by The Times of all 117 draw results since the start of 2015 to February 13 of this year.

It reveals that an average of only 66,700 players win some type of prize on each draw night under the new format, compared with more than 93,000 under the older version.

It also shows that under the new 47-ball format the average total payout for all winning combinations in the three draws on any given night is €1.39 million, compared with more than €1.34 million in the older game format — an increase of just €48,000.

On September 5, in the first major change to the game structure since 2006, the cost of playing Lotto rose by 25 per cent for customers who choose the “Plus” option. The minimum play went from €4 to €5. According to the National Lottery, 90 per cent of customers choose the “Plus” option. The price increase was 33 per cent for those who just played the main Lotto game.

Michael Cronin, head of the Department of Statistics at University College Cork, said the figures would suggest there had been a 9 per cent reduction in the number of lines played in the main Lotto game since the new format was introduced.

As well as raising the price, the National Lottery added two numbers to the existing 45-number format in September, significantly reducing a player’s chance of winning each type of match prize.

Extra winning combinations were added to the main Lotto draw as well as a €300 raffle prize for Lotto Plus players. This enabled the National Lottery to promise that the changes offered more ways to win and bigger jackpots.

However, the company did not publicise the fact that it withdrew the Match 3 prize in the Lotto Plus 2 game, which was won by an average of more than 26,000 players in each draw.

Dr Cronin said the odds of winning any prize in the new format had increased to 1 in 17.4 from 1 in 14.3 in the 45-ball game.

“While the odds of winning any prize on the main Lotto have increased, the change in mean prize is marginal,” he said. “That is more than offset by the increase in the price to play.”

In other words, while people with winning combinations are receiving slightly larger prizes on average, there are far fewer of them than before and everyone is paying more to play.

Since the new format was introduced there have been five winners of the big jackpot, paying out a total of €33.3 million. The biggest single jackpot of almost €13.8 million was won by a family in Co Mayo.

The National Lottery is now owned by Premier Lotteries Ireland Ltd, a consortium involving An Post and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which controls Camelot, the UK lottery group. Premier Lotteries Ireland took over the running of the lottery in 2014 with a 20-year licence.

A spokeswoman for Premier Lotteries Ireland said “Bigger Better Lotto” was introduced to create more winners and bigger jackpots as part of the company’s longterm growth strategy for the National Lottery.

She maintained that the odds on winning any prize for the core Lotto game had reduced from 1 in 42 to 1 in 28.7 under the new format.

Premier Lotteries Ireland said its own analysis of the results of 43 draws before and after the change indicated overall prize funds had increased by 10.3 per cent. It also insisted the overall number of winners across all games had risen.

However, the company declined to reveal any details of whether there had been an increase or decrease in the number of Lotto players since last year’s price rise. Similarly it did not provide any requested information on sales performance since the change to the new 47-ball format.

The spokeswoman said annual results for 2015 would be issued “in due course”, adding: “The new game and increased jackpot rollovers have generated huge player interest with the highest weekly sales recorded since 2010.”

Burglaries in 2015 - Breaking into the Garda figures

Increases in burglaries were reported by more than 40 per cent of all Garda stations last year, despite an overall reduction in the crime nationally.

Crime figures for 2015 show that 238 stations out of a total of 563 across the Republic recorded a rise in burglaries in 2015 against a background of a 5 per cent annual drop in such crimes nationwide. Levels at a further 38 stations were unchanged.

Despite a widespread focus on rural crime rates last year, the highest levels of burglary have consistently been found in Dublin and counties in the capital’s commuter belt.

Fears about dramatic increases in rural crime, particularly burglaries, which became the focus of intense media coverage last summer due to special meetings held by community leaders in many parts of the country, are not proven by the latest official crime figures.

Dublin experienced the highest level of the crime with 9.1 burglaries committed per 1,000 population with a noticeable increase in such crimes across upmarket suburbs on the southside of the city.

Figures show reported burglaries were up over 30 per cent in Shankill and Dundrum and by 20 per cent in Rathfarnham and Cabinteely.

Many TDs in south Dublin have claimed the closure of the Garda station in Stepaside has led to a spike in crime levels in the area.

Jospeha Madigan, a Fine Gael TD for Dublin Rathdown, said a review of the dispersal of stations in urban, suburban and rural areas was one of the top priorities in a discussion document which Fine Gael had prepared for talks with other groups in relation to the formation of a new government.

“Crime affects everyone across the country and the isolation of some rural communities and the vulnerability of persons or families experiencing crime resonates strongly but the statistical fact remains that in the city you are most likely to be a victim of crime,” Ms Madigan said.

Above-average rates for burglary are found exclusively along the eastern side of the country including Louth, Laois, Wexford, Kildare, Carlow, Waterford and Wicklow.

According to figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the lowest rates in 2015 were in Monaghan followed by Donegal, Mayo, Kerry, Cork and Leitrim.

The CSO figures, which are based on crimes recorded on the garda Pulse system, show there was a dramatic rise in burglaries in Cavan last year with levels up over 50 per cent.

Brendan Smith, a Cavan TD and former minister, there was deep concern among local communities about the scale of the increase.

Mr Smith blamed a reduction in the number of gardaí and the closure of Garda stations as well as a lack of resources for rising crime levels, which he partly attributed to criminals with paramilitary links based across the border in Northern Ireland.

“There’s been a huge increase in reports of items like lawnmowers, farm machinery and tools being taken from homes,” Mr Smith said. “In many cases, it looks like criminals are stealing to order.”

Mr Smith called on the government to introduce a network of CCTV cameras on major national routes which are widely believed to be used by criminal gangs.

Welcoming the overall downward trend in burglary figures, Save Our Local Community (SOLC), a group established to campaign for greater resources to tackle rural crime, said it believed its role in highlighting the issue had contributed to the decrease.

Robert O’Shea, the group’s spokesman, acknowledged that crimes figures in Tipperary, where SOLC is centred, had dropped significantly during 2015.

“We believe the publicity we attracted to the crime in the Littleton area certainly gave a warning to both the authorities and villains and it seems the results are beginning to show,” Mr O’Shea said. “The message certainly got home to gardaí and politicians about the depth of our feeling.”

Nevertheless, he warned that there had been little change in the level of fear felt by people living on their own in isolated areas.

“While they maybe know there has been a fall in crime in their area, they are conscious that criminals are still on the prowl,” Mr O’Shea remarked.

SOLC strongly advocate an increase in the visibility of gardai in communities with Mr O’Shea attributing the deployment of a second garda to the station in Littleton in October for the fall in crime in the area.

Preliminary garda figures for early 2016 suggest there has been a marked decrease in burglaries since the start of the year.

Jack Nolan, assistant garda commissioner, has confirmed that there was a 37 per cent drop in the crime in the capital during the first two months of 2016.

He claimed the decrease was greater than might be expected due to seasonal trends and attributed the results to the success of Operation Thor which has resulted in more than 1,000 arrests for burglary-related offences since its introduction last autumn.

A Garda source said: “It’s a case that many of these burglars are now aware they are being targeted and that has led to them to cease or reduce a lot of their usual activities.”

Commenting on the latest CSO figures, Frances Fitzgerald, the justice minister, expressed satisfaction that targeted garda operations combined with the recruitment of 1,150 extra gardaí and the introduction of tougher sentencing for repeat offenders would continue to impact on crime levels.
In the final table, we look at where burglaries have been rising and falling during 2015 with red areas indicating a greater number of such crimes were reported last year compared to 2014. Green areas denote a fall in the number of burglaries while white areas signal no change